Policy Paper | US elections and European cohesion: Scenario implications for Ukraine and Transatlantic security

Over the last three years, the transatlantic alliance has demonstrated a largely remarkable unity in its support for Ukraine. Though the support has often been less ambitious and slower than Kyiv has needed, it has at least enabled Ukraine’s continued resistance against Russian aggression. As the war is soon to enter its fourth year, however, support is eroding. And the future of US policy is particularly uncertain; the fate of Ukraine’s battlefield will also be decided at the ballot box. 

Given this context, this paper by Rachel Tausendfreund (German Council on Foreign Relations) and Roderick Kefferpütz (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung EU) explores how the European Union and its Member States could adjust their Ukraine and NATO policies, depending on the outcome of the US election. We plot out potential Harris and Trump administration policies on key questions related to support for Ukraine and NATO, as well as possible European responses and potential outcomes along the variables of unity and decisiveness.

Policy Paper | US elections and European cohesion: Scenarios for green transitions and Transatlantic climate action

The Biden administration has been arguably the greenest in US history, but the polls show that there’s about a fifty-fifty chance that he will be followed by one of the least climate-friendly presidents. So this November, the choice at the ballot box will be a stark one for climate policies, with Kamala Harris likely to push for a green transition and climate justice, and Donald Trump expected to end climate measures and focus on energy supply and energy independence. 

Given this context, this paper by Rachel Tausendfreund (German Council on Foreign Relations), Mareike Moraal (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Washington, DC) and Loyle Campbell (German Council on Foreign Relations) explores how the EU and its member states could adjust their climate policies, depending on the outcome of the US election. We plot out potential Harris and Trump administration positions on two key elements of global climate action and possible European responses along the variables of unity and decisiveness.

Third-party voters could tip the election against Harris

As American voters have become more firmly entrenched in their party affiliations, fewer and fewer states are in contention and the margins of victory are increasingly slim. This year, polls suggest that in the handful of swing states that will determine the race, the winner could be decided by a razor-thin margin. Votes for third party candidates could be enough to tip the election – most likely, in favour of Donald Trump. Analysis by Hannah Winnick (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Washington, DC).

Web dossier | The US 2024 elections from a green and European perspective

The outcome of the 2024 elections in the USA will have far-reaching international consequences. How will the result affect Transatlantic relations, Europe's security policy and global climate policy? In this web dossier, the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung addresses these and other questions from a green and European perspective.

E-Paper | From democratic resilience to democratic security: A post-2024 democracy agenda for the EU

Based on the 2024 political guidelines and mission letters to the new European Commissioners, the EU’s approach towards democracy seems to have shifted from a focus on democratic resilience towards democratic security. After a thorough examination of the EU’s 2019-2024 democracy agenda, this study by Sophie Pornschlegel (Europe Jacques Delors) presents recommendations for the next legislative cycle. 

The 2024 Elections in Georgia: descent into hegemonic authoritarianism

Georgia’s 2024 parliamentary elections signal the country’s descent into hegemonic authoritarianism. The ruling Georgian Dream party won by engaging in election manipulation, adopting the classical illiberal-authoritarian playbook, spreading disinformation about simultaneously remaining on the EU enlargement track and instrumentalising Russia’s threat to the country. If the government stays in power despite these violations, Georgia’s relationship with the EU will further deteriorate. Many of the country’s active citizens will fall into a deep depression and seek emigration. The EU must now take an active but well-thought-out role, insisting on a democratic process and an independent investigation of the irregularities, writes Sonja Schiffers (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Tbilisi).

Böll·Europe Podcast #16 | Climate justice and gender equality

A few days ahead of COP29's start in Baku, this Böll·Europe Podcast episode explores the often overlooked link between international climate politics and gender perspectives. We discuss how climate change impacts women and marginalised communities, the inclusion of gender in global initiatives, and the crucial role of intersectional feminism in climate justice. Melanie Bernhofer (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung EU) talks with Sofiia Shevchuk, a Brussels-based expert on environment, gender, peace and security policy.

Wednesday 13.11.2024, 10:30 CET

Launch of the Soil Atlas 2024: Facts and figures about a vital resource

The Soil Atlas 2024 illustrates the alarming consequences of global soil degradation while highlighting the immense potential of sustainable and equitable land use practices for climate protection, biodiversity enhancement, and healthy food production.

This high-level event, taking place alongside climate COP29, will explore these critical issues from both European and international perspectives, focusing on the necessary actions at the EU level to protect our soils in Europe and beyond. This is particularly salient as a new EU legislative cycle has kick-started and a new European Commission work programme will be unveiled soon.

Thursday 21.11.2024, 14:00 CET

Strengthening participation in Europe's energy transition: Five action areas for the new EU policy cycle

How can citizens benefit better from the EU’s energy transition? Which tools can bring down the bills? How should EU funds and policies be organised to deliver a just transition for all?

During the past year, the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union and the Green European Foundation have gathered a Knowledge Community of more than 30 energy and social policy experts from very diverse backgrounds. The group has developed a series of five briefs with recommendations for the EU’s new policy cycle, covering five action areas: energy sharing, electricity tariffs, renovation one-stop-shops, just transition governance and local transition management.

At this launch event, the core authors from the Knowledge Community will present their key findings and discuss them with stakeholders from EU institutions, local government and civil society.