E-paper | Trump 2.0 and European cohesion: Scenario implications for Ukraine and transatlantic security

Over the last three years, the transatlantic alliance has demonstrated a largely remark-able unity in its support for Ukraine. Though the support has often been less ambitious and slower than Kyiv has needed, it has at least enabled Ukraine’s continued resistance against Russian aggression. 

As the war is soon to enter its fourth year, however, sup-port is eroding. And the future of US policy under President Trump is particularly uncertain. Given this context, this paper explores how the European Union and its Member States could adjust their Ukraine and NATO policies. It plots out Trump's potential administration policies on key questions related to support for Ukraine and NATO, as well as possible European responses and potential outcomes along the variables of unity and decisiveness.

This e-paper is an updated version of the publication “US elections and European cohesion” from October 2024 that contained scenarios for both a Harris and a Trump 2.0 administration" by Rachel Tausendfreund (DGAP) and Roderick Kefferpütz (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung EU). The initial scenarios were refined, tested and reviewed in an online workshop with foreign policy and security experts.

Reactions to Trump's re-election from around the world

After the elections in the United States on 5 November 2024, the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Washington, DC office reached out to the global network of Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung offices to hear how the second Trump administration will impact countries and progress on green issues across the world.

Poland’s EU Council Presidency - What to expect?

On 1 January 2025, Poland will take over the six-month presidency of the Council of the EU. As part of the presidency, it will host nearly 400 councils, meetings, and conferences with the participation of representatives from 27 countries. Contrary to a common misconception, this role does not grant Poland the authority to dictate the EU's actions. Instead, the Presidency is tasked with shaping the agenda of Council meetings, which can influence the priorities during this period and set the tone for the Council's overall working dynamic. The timing of Poland’s Presidency is significant, coinciding with the start of a new three-year EU funding period 2025-2027. Poland will also inherit the role from Hungary, whose Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, has been criticized for endorsing the Russian narrative and dismantling democracy in his own country. The following article by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Warsaw office provides insights into Poland’s priorities during the six month period.

2024 in review: Green parties face mixed fortunes amid anti-government backlash

2024 was a challenging year for any government’s ruling party. Incumbent governments struggled as the cost-of-living crisis disgruntled voters around the globe. This was especially true for junior coalition partners, who often bear the brunt of electoral backlash. Green parties – whose electoral performance is closely linked to a country’s economy – were no exception to the rule this year. This article reviews the performance of European Green Party (EGP) affiliates in elections in Europe in 2024, drawing the conclusion that those in government suffered while those in opposition did less so. Analysis by Eric Balonwu (EuropeElects).

Policy brief | What role for skills mobility in the green agri-food transition?

As the EU enters a new five-year cycle, its ambitious Green Deal targets and European Climate Law face growing uncertainty due to concerns over industrial competitiveness and economic growth. Additionally, backlash against the EU’s climate policies, fuelled by farmers’ protests, could hinder the promise of a just green transition.

Yet, as the planet warms rapidly, climate change will continue to affect EU economic sectors, including agriculture and food. Greater climate variability and extremes will impact global food systems, posing supply chain challenges and heightening food insecurity. These trends highlight the need to invest in sustainable agri-food systems as part of climate mitigation and adaptation. With an ageing population and demographic shifts, this transition rests on a stable workforce with both traditional and ‘green’ skills in the EU and beyond.

The OECD reports that the EU agri-food sector currently has a high rate of skills mismatch and is set to lose a further 13% of its skilled workers, mostly low-skilled, in the next decade.2 Beyond seasonal and temporary farm workers, the sector will need medium to high-skilled workers, not all of whom can be sourced domestically or via reskilling efforts. Furthermore, the Green Deal alone is expected to create an estimated 2.5 million more jobs by 2030. By Helena Hahn (European Policy Centre).

Now available in English! Böll.Thema 24-2 | Democracy: Diverse avenues towards one common goal

Globally, democracy is under pressure. In this issue of the Böll.Thema magazine, we introduce individuals who inspire us with their dedication to democratic values. Because without dedication and action, there can be no democracy. And without democracy, everything is for naught.

Böll·Europe Podcast #21 | Reinhard Bütikofer on Europe, foreign policy and the Green movement

Roderick Kefferpütz, Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung EU talks to Reinhard Bütikofer. He was Member of the European Parliament for the Green/EFA group for 15 years, from 2009 to 2024. During his time at the European Parliament, Reinhard Bütikofer focused on foreign affairs, international trade, and EU-China relations. He served as the chair of the EP delegation for relations with China and was a long-standing member of the delegation for relations with the United States. As Co-Chair of the European Green Party from 2012 to 2019, and as a Leader of the German Green Party from 2002 to 2008, he played an important role in shaping Green policies in Europe. In this episode, they delve into his insights on evolving global challenges, the trajectory of Green EU policies, and the future of EU-China relations, in a conversation filled with reflections, and strategies for addressing pressing global issues.

The Sound of Economics | Nature on the balance sheet: a financial perspective

How can businesses, governments and financial institutions work together to tackle the global biodiversity crisis? In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Rebecca Christie invites Heather Grabbe and Thomas Viegas to explore the intersection of biodiversity and economic policy. The discussion highlights the critical importance of integrating nature conservation into financial frameworks. The guests delve into systemic risks posed by biodiversity loss, the role of public and private finance, and strategies to address harmful subsidies. They also emphasize the necessity of aligning economic systems with natural limits to ensure sustainable development and long-term resilience. This podcast was produced with the financial support of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union.

Böll·Europe Podcast #20 | One year of Milei: what is going on in Argentina?

In 2023, Javier Milei, a self-described “anarcho-capitalist” surprised Argentina’s political establishment and won the presidential elections. He’s an admirer of US President-elect Donald Trump and of tech mogul Elon Musk, and his political platform is characterised by hash austerity and a very conservative social agenda. Using the rulebook of other illiberal regimes throughout the world when it comes to political communications and dealing with pluralism, his style and policies are making waves worldwide. What is going on in Argentina and what are the implications for human rights, digital rights and the environment? Joan Lanfranco, Head of Communications and Outreach at the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung EU office, explores these dimensions with Argentinian civil society representatives Cecilia Ales, Beatriz Busaniche and Ariel Slipak, who visited Brussels in November 2024 to present their case to key EU decision-makers and stakeholders.