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Böll EU Newsletter 2/2025
Europe must step up

Dear friends,

There are years when nothing happens, and then there are weeks when everything happens. This is what the current moment feels like. Three recent events stand out:

  • 14 February: At the Munich Security Conference, Vice President J.D. Vance declares that the real threat is not Russia, China, or autocratic regimes, but essentially the European Union itself, with its rules and regulations.
  • 28 February: In the Oval Office, President Trump and J.D. Vance ambush President Zelensky, accusing him of ingratitude and resistance to peace efforts.
  • 3 March: Trump announces a pause on all US military aid to Ukraine.

A common thread runs through these events: raw power. The Trump administration views politics akin to Thucydides’ Melian Dialogue: “The strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must.”

This explains Trump’s admiration for Putin, Xi Jinping, and other autocratic strongmen, while dismissing democracy, multilateral institutions, and Europe. He does not perceive Europe as strong—and so, in his view, it must submit.

On the contrary – Europe must step up. While EU leaders have expressed solidarity in the wake of the Oval Office meeting, tweets and statements do not help on the battlefield. Ukraine needs weapons and financial support. The challenge Europe faces is not a lack of capability, but a weakness of will. Europe possesses immense resources but struggles to mobilise them effectively.

Circumstances are pushing a shift in mindset, and progress is possible. Today, ahead of the crucial 6 March special European Council summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented the "ReArm Europe" initiative with a new common 150 billion euro defence fund. This initiative, however, can only be a first step, as it's largely limited to expanding national fiscal space; it is welcome, but not yet the defence bazooka Ukraine and Europe need. In this context, I invite you to read our new e-paper by Sophia Besch from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which analyses the EU’s defence industrial policy and outlines a path forward.

European coordination has also intensified, the UK and France are ready to lead a European mission in Ukraine, and Germany’s recent elections have brought political clarity to Berlin. As discussed in our recent webinar on Germany’s election, Friedrich Merz may adopt a more European-oriented stance than Olaf Scholz. Already, the future governing coalition is considering two extraordinary funds—one for defence and one for infrastructure.

We will continue to analyse and discuss these critical developments. On 6 March, we are hosting an event (fully booked) on Russia’s trajectory and how the EU should deal with Russia in future, featuring Jens Siegert, former director of our Moscow office, and MEP Ville Niinistö, Chair of the European Parliament’s Russia delegation. Then, on 19 March, we will have a webinar to explore the latest EU security and defence developments.

The coming days and weeks will be pivotal. The time for European action is now.

Warm regards,

Feature

E-paper | EU defence industrial policy in a new era: Taking stock and looking ahead

The 2024 re-election of Donald Trump as US president, and the realignment of US security strategy that is expected to follow fundamentally changes Europe’s security outlook. The EU cannot become Europe’s security provider, but it can, through its defence industrial policy, support the funding and organisation of the rearmament effort. A second Trump term could provide momentum to unlock sufficient funding and shape a useful role for the EU. By Sophia Besch.

 

Germany's election results

Webinar recording | Germany has voted: What next for Europe?

Germany held snap federal elections on 23 February 2025. What will the new political constellation mean for European unity, the EU’s decarbonisation and competitiveness agenda, and the EU’s role in the world? Roderick Kefferpütz analysed the election results and their implications for Germany’s role in Europe with Dr. Jana Puglierin, Sven Giegold, Leonore Gewessler, Jeanette Süß and Jolanta Szymańska.

 

The Greens after Germany’s election: Seize the opportunity for a new start!

Despite the more difficult majorities in society and parliaments, the Greens should not spend too much time licking their wounds. Instead: open the gates and invite people everywhere to get involved in forward-looking politics. Commentary by our President Jan Philipp Albrecht.

 

After the 2025 German Federal election: maintaining the ability to compromise among democrats

The Greens emerge from the election relatively stable despite losses. Formation of the political will within and outside of parties must reorganise itself. Democratic parties must remain able to compromise among themselves in order to fulfil their responsibility for the political order in Germany and beyond. Commentary by Dr. Dietrich Herrmann.

 

Four key economic policy issues for the next German government

Germany voted and Europe held its breath. Despite the bleak economic performance and outlook of Germany, the promise of ‘economy-centred election campaigns’ never materialised. Yet the list of economic policy homework for the new government is long and urgent. The possibility to form a two-party government of the Christian conservative CDU/CSU and social democratic SPD now needs to be translated into political action – in both Germany and the EU. Analysis by Phillip Käding and Anton Möller.

 

Upcoming events

Thursday 6.03.2025 (fully booked)
Where is Russia heading? Scenarios for a post-Putin future and how the EU should prepare

In his book Where is Russia Heading? Scenarios for the Time Afterwards, Jens Siegert, former long-time Director of Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung’s Moscow office, examines how Russia’s political system, civil society, and historical context could shape its post-Putin trajectory. While change under Putin is unlikely, Russia’s future remains uncertain. What scenarios could unfold? What do we need to understand about Russia’s political structures and society to prepare for what comes next? How should the EU navigate its strategy, and which actors—inside and outside Russia—should it engage with? Discussion with MEP Ville Niinistö and Jens Siegert.

More info
 

Tuesday 18.03.2025
Super-charging regional development: How to empower the local energy transition in the next multi-annual financial framework

The study Energising EU Cohesion outlines challenges for prospering regions and new opportunities for rural regions. However, the energy transition will only be successful if it is inclusive and to the benefit for all regions and people in Europe.

Which regions are particularly affected by the transition to renewable energies? Where can cohesion policy act to advance the energy transition? What tools are required for the different regions to successfully implement the energy transition?

The aim of the event, jointly organised by the Bertelsmann Stiftung and the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union, is to bring the debate on the energy transition closer to that on the future of cohesion policy in the advent of the upcoming negotiations of the next multi-annual financial framework.

More info
 

Wednesday 19.03.2025
From Warsaw to Brussels: Where does Europe stand on security and defence?

Poland has assumed the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU at a time of significant geopolitical uncertainty. Questions of European security and defence are glued to the top of the political agenda. EU leaders have sought to project unity, but have so far not been able to muster a convincing and unified response to Washington’s actions. Behind the scenes, the situation is frayed: EU Member States are at odds on crucial issues, including financing and procurement of additional military capabilities. It remains uncertain, if and how Europe could guarantee Ukraine’s security, as divisions are emerging on the issue of sending European troops to safeguard a potential agreement. The Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung invites you to join our upcoming webinar and take stock of the Polish EU Council Presidency’s efforts, explore key areas of contention, and discuss potential paths forward.

More info
 

Tuesday 25.03.2025
Big Tech on the Rise: A Threat to Financial Stability and Democracy?

Big Tech companies like Apple, Google, Amazon and others are more powerful than ever - in the market and in politics. Their alliance with the new Trump administration threatens to further consolidate their dominance. At the same time, they are increasingly expanding into the financial sector and are constantly widening the range of services they offer. While they provide financial services such as payments, loans and even bank accounts outside the EU, their main presence in Europe is through digital wallets such as Apple Pay and Google Pay. However, big tech companies could quickly become dominant financial players in Europe too - with significant consequences for consumers, competition and European sovereignty. What are the risks of this development? What is the scope for policy action at national and EU level to protect our society from being overpowered by tech companies in the financial sector?

More info
 

Green transformation

3 Questions on the EU's Clean Industrial Deal to MEP Michael Bloss

The European Commission finally unveiled the Clean Industrial Deal, a competitiveness-driven approach to decarbonisation, aimed at securing the EU as an attractive location for manufacturing, including for energy intensive industries, and promoting clean tech and new circular business models. We asked MEP Michael Bloss (Greens/EFA) what to expect, and how to conciliate competitiveness with just transition. 

 

Study | How to build and fund a better EU green industrial policy

This new study by Sander Tordoir and Elisabetta Cornago (Centre for European Reform), supported by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union, shows that Europe’s clean tech industry is a bright spot for a continent fretting about its declining competitiveness. The report proposes a strategy for the EU to revamp its industrial policies, ensuring the EU does not cede clean tech leadership to China as Trump’s America backtracks from decarbonisation goals.

 

E-paper | Simplification and policy coherence How to reap the benefits

Policy coherence can ensure simplification without compromising environmental and social standards. The Omnibus Simplification Packages should be used as an opportunity to transform the EU’s legislative framework into an enabling toolbox for businesses transitioning toward competitive sustainability. Authored by Louise Simon and Raphael Tietmeyer (Climate & Company).

 

Report | Europe Sustainable Development Report 2025: SDG Priorities for the New EU Leadership

The Europe Sustainable Development Report 2025 provides an independent quantitative assessment of the progress of the European Union, its member states and partner countries towards the Sustainable Development Goals. This sixth edition identifies SDG priorities in a context where the new EU leadership, including the European Commission, Parliament and Council of the EU, has recently been established for 2024-2029 mandate. Published by Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) & SDSN Europe, and supported by the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union.

 

Energy Transition Blog

Energy Transition Blog | Stopping Russian aggression means rejecting its fossil fuel exports – and, ultimately, switching to renewables

Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Paul Hockenos compares the efforts of the EU and the US in view of weaning from Russian fossil fuels. On the ground, Ukraine’s transition to distributed renewables already rhymes with resilience against the aggressor. Paul Hockenos reports.

 
Photo credits:
M-SUR | Shutterstock, All rights reserved
IMAGO | Sven Simon, All rights reserved
IMAGO / photothek, All rights reserved
IMAGO / IlluPics, All rights reserved
European Parliament & Laura Moreno, All rights reserved
Centre for European Reform, All rights reserved
Fahroni | Shutterstock, All rights reserved
SDSN, All rights reserved
Ivan Marc | Shutterstock, All rights reserved
S. Hirzel Verlag GmbH, All rights reserved
Go to Gonz DDL's profile
Gonz DDL | Unsplash, Public domain
Polish presidency of the Council of the EU 2025, Public Domain
Finanzwende Recherche, All rights reserved

The Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung is a German political foundation affiliated with the German Green Party (Alliance 90/The Greens). Its primary task is political education and advocacy in Germany and abroad. Our main tenets are ecology and sustainability, democracy and human rights, non-violence and justice. In our work, we place particular emphasis on gender democracy, equal rights for minorities and the political and social participation of migrants.

Our namesake, the writer and Nobel Prize laureate Heinrich Böll, personifies the fundamental principles we stand for: defence of freedom and human dignity, civic courage, open debate and the acknowledgement of art and culture as independent spheres of thought and action. As a think tank for green visions and ideas, we are part of an international network with 34 offices worldwide and with partner projects in more than 60 countries.

The Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union represents the foundation vis-à-vis European and international institutions, associations, non-governmental organisations and media based in Brussels. The office is a main point of contact for individuals, groups and organisations from around the world interested in EU politics and policies. The future of the European project and the role of the European Union in the world are at the centre of our activities and efforts.

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