Dear friends,
Recent headlines about the EU-US trade deal paint a ghastly picture of Europe’s future:
Politico even claimed that Europe is entering a “Century of Humiliation” akin to what China endured in the 19th and 20th century. Are we witnessing the death of Europe?
The analogy is, of course, absurd. China’s century of humiliation stripped the country of its sovereignty and contributed to tens of millions of deaths through war, occupation, and famine. Nobody is dying in Athens, Antwerp, or Aachen because of a 15% tariff.
Europe is a world champion when it comes to self-flagellation. It’s an easy way to avoid responsibility and to cast others as the source of Europe’s woes. Yes, the EU-US deal and the process that led to it were frustrating and far from optimal. Worse still, the outcome doesn’t even provide full certainty. But the alternatives carry even greater risks: an escalating trade war, heightened insecurity, and a more divided Europe. Hardly the ingredients for political stability.
And is there any other country in the world that did better? Some claim Beijing is a model to follow, since it secured a truce after hitting back hard. But was that really a win? Even post-truce, tariffs on Chinese goods average around 50%. The truce simply froze escalation, it didn’t roll back Trump’s tariff wall.
For the EU, the trade deal represents a tactical concession. Europe is conceding some economic space in exchange for political time and stability. There are only so many fronts one can fight at once. But this breathing space must not be squandered; it must be used to launch substantial reforms and invest in sovereignty-enhancing capacities.
The key question, as Mario Draghi put it succinctly in Rimini, is what new forces of integration Europe needs to rise to the existential challenges of our time: “When problems change to the point of making existing structures fragile and vulnerable, those structures must themselves change.”
Europe has a great deal going for it. It is finally investing in its own defence capabilities. It remains a magnet for global investment. Its single market has surpassed China’s in size, making it the second largest in the world. It boasts a vibrant start-up ecosystem (AI company Lovable was recently valued at over €4 billion). It is a technological leader and home to world-class companies. Of course, economic weight alone does not translate into geopolitical power. The EU-US deal swept away this illusion. But without economic strength, geopolitical power is certainly more difficult to build.
Let’s resist the lure of lamentation, and let circumstances harden our determination to move forward. This is not the death of Europe, but a test of Europe.
As we enter the political rentrée, I invite you to explore some of our recent work: a policy brief on Europe-India cooperation in space governance, and an op-ed I co-authored with MEP Villy Søvndal on the momentum for northern EU enlargement. And stay tuned for some of our upcoming events, which include a webinar on the EU’s 2040 climate targets, a workshop on the EU’s future trade policy, and a debate with voices from Europe, India, and Japan on the changing world order.
Lastly, there's only one week left to apply for our Climate disinformation media fellowship 2025. Spread the word!
Warm regards,
