Dear friends,
In the dramedy Everything Everywhere All at Once, multiple threats, realities and possibilities collide all at the same time.
Chaos supreme. That’s what came to mind as I started thinking about the rentrée newsletter.
War in Ukraine and the Middle East, escalating trade wars, Russia accelerating its hybrid war with explosive drones in Germany, the extreme right vying for an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, a summer of forest fires amid unchecked climate change, and, of course, artificial intelligence hurtling us into an uncertain future.
And this is just a snapshot; the EU Council has put forth a public version of its new threat assessment, which will inform the upcoming European Security Strategy.
Everything. Everywhere. All at once. That’s increasingly Europe’s strategic environment (which we will be discussing with Robert Habeck later this month).
But Europe’s strategy cannot account for everything or every possibility. It cannot be everything, everywhere, all at once. We’re facing scarcity politics. Too many challenges are competing for limited political attention and resources. Under such circumstances, the actual capacity to act, respond and pre-empt is decisive.
This requires three elements.
First, institutional and partnership formats that enable action. Too often institutions lack the dynamism that the new hyper dynamic environment requires. On the EU level, different proposals and constellations, from a European Security Council to coalitions of the willing, have been made in this regard.
The same goes for the EU’s partnerships abroad. A year ago, we highlighted the opportunities for northern enlargement, and followed Iceland’s referendum with great interest. Icelanders have opted to not sit at the EU table. But enlargement isn’t the only game in town anymore. Bespoke formats are possible, ranging from deeper trade and defence to joint research and visa-free travel. The EU can offer, and is further exploring, a wide range of diverse partnership models. Canada in particular is looking to strengthen bonds, with Mark Carney joining the EU’s State of the Union in two weeks.
European integration doesn’t have to be full-fat EU.
Second, political leadership and orientation. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a European “independence moment”. But is there a stable political coalition behind it? The political centre is fraying, and governments across Europe are increasingly preoccupied with pressures at home. Germany faces the prospect of the extreme right becoming the dominant force in Saxony-Anhalt. France remains politically fragile. Major elections loom in Italy, Poland and Spain. In the European Parliament, majorities have become less predictable. Europe needs political capital at precisely the moment when its leaders have less of it to spare.
Last, it’s about cold hard cash. The EU cannot simultaneously do more European defence, more investment in critical technologies, more resilience, more climate, more support for Ukraine, while limiting the budget (see our MFF dossier). Since entering office, Chancellor Merz has failed to build durable coalitions to move the EU forward. That he’s now turning himself into the coalition leader of the frugal states, a coalition constraining Europe, is a failure of leadership. Reforming Germany’s debt brake and spending freely at home, while becoming the high priest of fiscal restraint in Europe. Oh, the irony.
The world will not become less chaotic. There will always be another crisis, another disruption, another problem. You can’t prepare for everything, everywhere, all at once. But we can partner and build the capacity to act.
And maybe, there is a final take-away from Everything Everywhere All at once: Amidst the chaos, it’s relationships and connections that matter. That makes me particularly happy that this newsletter has now grown to over 10.000 subscribers. Thank you for reading, sharing, and engaging with us.
In the movie, even the fight with the IRS tax authorities eventually gets solved. Let’s hope the MFF does too.
Warm regards,
